Automotive and parts: 2020 stable ending is expected to open the door in January

Recent industry

Published by the Federation in December sales data, the narrow passenger yield 2.299 million (+ 10.7% year on year, the chain + 1.0%), retail sales of 2.288 million (up + 6.6%, + 9.9% MoM), wholesale sales of 2.314 million vehicles (up + 6.8%, + 2.3% MoM).

Piling ring is better than the performance, smooth ending in 2020, we expect that January 2021 will usher in the opener. December retail sales were up 9.9 percent, the terminal needs to maintain a high boom, and in December 2019 the chain increased considerably (affected by the January 2020 Spring Festival, the December 2019 high retail chain growth), on behalf of the automobile market demand continued to pick up. 12 per month, wholesale sales were slightly by 1.0% qoq, 2.3%, we believe that some manufacturers sales target in 2020 have been completed, so wholesale volume in December, relatively conservative, the other chip supply bottleneck for production is also a certain constraints. Although sub-system, continuing to enhance its own brand share, penetration reached 43.1% in December, the chain + 2.3ppt, led by SAIC Volkswagen shares fell more Ashkenazi, the chain -3.4ppt. For the full year 2020, retail sales of 19.288 million, -6.8% year on year, wholesale sales of 19.763 million, up -6.3%, wholesale and retail sales decline was narrowed to less than 7%, better than we expected early. Looking forward, the Chinese New Year period and the wrong public health events affecting the low base last year, we expect substantial growth year on year in January greater uncertainty.

New energy to drive strong sales volume growth, maintain optimism in 2021. December new passenger cars wholesale energy of about 210,000, year on year growth of 53.6%, respectively, 15.6%, the same chain were sustained high growth. In absolute volume terms, an increase of about 30,000 over the ring in November, more than 50% of the total increment. Where pure electric cars still showed the force at both ends, SAIC-GM-Wuling monthly sales of 41,000; Tesla monthly sales reached 24,000. For the full year, 2020 new energy wholesale, retail sales were 1.17 million, 1.109 million, up 12%, respectively, 9.8%, new energy market to maintain a high boom. Looking forward, we expect 2021 new energy market will continue to maintain high growth, the demand side, the facilities layout to improve consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles will continue to improve; the supply side, the new models on the market intensive traditional high-end car prices layout of new energy markets, to enhance the product richness. We expect the new energy passenger car sales in 2021 will reach 1.6 million, an increase is expected to exceed 40%.

Manufacturers, continued to channel inventory, luxury car discount efforts narrowed. December 15000 manufacturers to reduce inventory, channel inventories decreased by 7.4 million, plus stock OEMs conservative. For the full year 2020, factory inventories fell 480,000, a large destocking efforts to lay a good foundation for 2021. According to Thinkercar data, at the end of the various discount basically stable or slight fluctuations, the expansion of discount models are now available at more than joint venture brands, luxury brands and independent terminal price performed better. BMW and Mercedes-Benz luxury brand in the whole system appears a marked narrowing of the discount, we believe that due to the resumption of work after luxury car brand in the continued strong sales, 2020 sales target set by the brand did not bring greater pressure on the dealer, the dealer end sales to grasp the rhythm better, more adequate orders in hand, or a quarter of sales growth has brought some protection.